Analysis of energy-related CO 2 emissions and driving factors in five major energy consumption sectors in China

Abstract

Continual growth of energy-related CO₂ emissions in China has received great attention, both domestically and internationally. In this paper, we evaluated the CO₂ emissions in five major energy consumption sectors which were evaluated from 1991 to 2012. In order to analyze the driving factors of CO₂ emission change in different sectors, the Kaya identity was extended by adding several variables based on specific industrial characteristics and a decomposition analysis model was established according to the LMDI method. The results demonstrated that economic factor was the leading force explaining emission increase in each sector while energy intensity and sector contribution were major contributors to emission mitigation. Meanwhile, CO₂ emission intensity had no significant influence on CO₂ emission in the short term, and energy consumption structure had a small but growing negative impact on the increase of CO₂ emissions. In addition, the future CO₂ emissions of industry from 2013 to 2020 under three scenarios were estimated, and the reduction potential of CO₂ emissions in industry are 335 Mt in 2020 under lower-emission scenario while the CO₂ emission difference between higher-emission scenario and lower-emission scenario is nearly 725 Mt. This paper can offer complementary perspectives on determinants of energy-related CO₂ emission change in different sectors and help to formulate mitigation strategies for CO₂ emissions.

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